Bitcoin edged up on Tuesday and expanded the gains on reports that Iran is seeking a ceasefire with Israel.

But the gains remain limited amid the lack of real signals that the Middle Eastern conflict is slowing down, while traders shun risks before the Fed’s meeting this week.

Investors remain concerned after US President Trump warned Iranians to evacuate Tehran in a threatening message, possibly indicating future US intervention in the war. 

Crypto Markets Shrug off BOJ

The crypto market didn’t react to the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain rates unchanged and start the gradual process of reducing government bond purchases by next year. 

Bitcoin’s Performance Through the Crisis

Bitcoin edged up 0.5% to $107,066, but remained in a tight range that trapped the price throughout June.

Reports indicated that US and Iranian officials are considering talks to reach a ceasefire, but Iran dismissed such reports.

Trump Media Seeks Launch of Crypto ETFs

The Trump Media & Technology Group sent a request to the SEC to launch new bitcoin and ethereum ETFs according to a new filing. 

This is the second such request of the Trump group, and will join a jam packed market for such ETFs in the US in recent months. 

Otherwise, recent Faraside Investors data showed investments into bitcoin ETFs surged to $408.6 million on Monday, the second highest this month.

Still, a survey by Myriad showed that 77% of participants don’t expect bitcoin to close above $107,000 today.

Technically, some analysts are still expecting a downward correction potentially below $100,000 as bulls potentially lose steam due technical resistance.

RSI indicators are showing volatility near the 50 neutral levels.

MACD is outright negative and likely supports a downward scenario.

However, the price could surprise us with resilience and surged towards the coveted $112,000 record high once more

Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid mounting Iran-Israel tensions even as  the oil and gas infrastructure remains largely intact.

Brent rose $1.23, or 1.7% to $74.46 a barrel as of 10:23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate rose $1.08, or 1.5% to $72.85 a barrel.

Sharp Volatility 

Oil futures surged over 2% before dropping then rebounding again in a highly volatile session.

Even as oil supplies remain largely intact, Iran has partially suspended gas production in the Southern Baris gas field that’s jointly operated with Qatar after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday.

The major concerns for investors are a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt nearly a third of global oil supplies and hugely impact the global economy. 

In a sign of increasing tensions, two oil tankers collided and caught fire on Tuesday near the Hormuz strait due to increasing amounts of electrical jamming, threatening maritime shipping in this vital passage.

However, despite all these developments, all signs indicate that oil supplies remain abundant as demand is expected to slow down.

The International Energy Agency reduced its outlook for global demand growth by 20,000 bpd this year, while total output growth is expected to accelerate by 200 thousand bpd.

Silver prices surged in European trade on Tuesday to a 13-year peak, expanding gains for the second straight session amid strong demand on the white metal and as the dollar fell against major rivals.

Later today, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to convene to discuss policies, with the decision slated for tomorrow, widely expected to maintain rates unchanged. 

Prices

Silver prices rose 2.3% to $37.16 an ounce, the highest since February 2023, with a session-low at $36.15.

On Monday, silver rose 0.1%, the second profit in three days on short-covering.

Strong Demand

Silver rose over 12% in June so far on strong industrial and retail demand, with the white metal being far undervalued compared to gold.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, ahead of crucial US retail sales data for May, which will provide important clues on the pace of US growth in the second quarter.

A weaker dollar makes the greenback-denominated gold futures cheaper to holders of other currencies. 

The Fed

Later today, the Federal Reserve will start holding its two-day policy meeting with the decision expected tomorrow.

The Fed will likely provide important clues on the future path of US interest rates and policy directions for the second half of the year.

Gold prices fell in European trade on Tuesday on track for the second loss in a row, moving away from a two-month high on profit-taking under pressure from the stronger US dollar.

Later today, the Federal Reserve will convene and will issue its decisions tomorrow, expected to hold interest rates unchanged for the fourth straight meeting.

The Price

Gold prices fell 0.35% today to $3374 an ounce, with a session-high at $3403.

On Monday, gold lost 1.4%, the first loss in four days on profit-taking away from a two-month high at $3451.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose over 0.1% on Tuesday and maintained the gains for the third straight session against a basket of major rivals as the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady for an extended duration.

Later today, the Federal Reserve will start holding its two-day policy meeting with the decision expected tomorrow.

The Fed will likely provide important clues on the future path of US interest rates and policy directions for the second half of the year.

US Rates

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in June stood at 1%.

The odds of a July rate cut stood at a slightly better 19%.

Now traders expect 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts overall this year, starting with September then October. 

SPDR

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 1.44 tons yesterday to a total of 941.93 tons, the highest since May 2.