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Gold prices rose in European trade on Wednesday and maintained gains for the second straight day as the dollar lost ground, with gold prices on track for two-week highs.
Recent US retail sales data painted a sluggish picture of the economy, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year.
Prices
Gold prices rose 0.25% today to $2335 an ounce, with a session-low at $2326.
Prices rose 0.45% on Tuesday, the second profit in three days as both the dollar and US treasury yields lost ground.
The Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.1% on Wednesday, extending losses for the third straight session against a basket of major rivals.
A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated gold futures cheaper to holders of other currencies.
Weak Data
US retail sales fell 0.1% in May, missing estimates of a 0.2% increase.
It’s a sign that the US economy is struggling in the second quarter.
US Rates
Following the data, the odds of a Federal Reserve 0.25% interest rate cut in July rose to 10%, and to 67% in September, and to 80% in November.
Now investors await speeches by several Fed officials this week to monitor the growing battle with inflation in the US and the expected path forward for interest rates.
The SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust remained flat yesterday at 825.31 tonnes, the lowest since March 13.
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Sterling rose in European trade on Wednesday against a basket of major rivals, extending gains for the third session against the dollar and moving off four-week lows after UK inflation data.
Mainline UK inflation rose just 2%, the slowest such pace in three years, however, markets focused on services inflation, which remains far from the Bank of England’s targets, in turn hurting the odds of a rate cut in August.
The Price
The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to $1.2733, with a session-low at $1.2700.
The pair rose 0.1% on Tuesday, the second profit in a row away from four-week lows at $1.2657.
UK Inflation
Earlier UK data showed mainline consumer prices rose 2% y/y in May, the slowest such pace since July 2021, and down from 2.3% in April.
Core prices rose 3.5%, matching estimates and down from 3.9% in the previous reading.
However, services prices rallied 5.7% in May, above estimates of 5.5%.
Even as mainline inflation fell to 2%, economists expect it to rise once more soon as services prices remain too high, thus it’s not likely The BOE will cut interest rates soon.
UK Rates
There’s now a 36% chance the BOE will cut interest rates in August, down from 55% in previous estimates.
Traders now only expect 39 basis points of total interest rate cut by the BOE this year.
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Most cryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday amid a heavy selloff that hit most high-risk assets following data.
Earlier US government data showed retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in May, below estimates of 0.2%.
On a yearly basis, sales rose 2.3% to $703.1 billion in May.
Recently, the Federal Reserve announced no changes in interest rates at the June 11-12 meeting, maintaining them at 23 year highs.
It pointed to persistent inflation risks as a basis for estimating only a single interest rate cut this year.
Ripple
Ripple tumbled 7.8% as of 21:03 GMT on Coinmarketcap to $0.4813.
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