The Swiss franc rose in Asian trade on Friday on track for the second straight profit against the dollar, hitting 14-year highs and on track for the biggest weekly profit since 2022. 

It comes amid surging haven demand on the franc with investors losing confidence in US assets due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

The Price

The USD/CHF price fell 1.2% today to 0.8140, a January 2011 low, with a session-high at 0.8240.

The franc surged 3.8% on the dollar on Thursday, the second profit in three days, and the largest since June 2015.

Weekly Trades

The franc is up a stunning 5.3% against the dollar so far this week on track for the fourth weekly profit in a row, and the largest such profit since November 2022.

US Assets

Confidence in US assets is plummeting, prompting investors to flee the US markets, especially stocks and bonds, towards other safe havens such as the Swiss franc and gold.

It comes amid mounting uncertainty in the global markets with growing trade tensions with China, and concerns about a global recession due to Trump’s aggressive tariffs.

The Best Safe Haven

The Swiss franc has emerged as a strong safe haven in the forex market, supported by the lowest interest rates among G8 currencies, reinforcing its appeal in times of economic crisis.

Swiss Rates

As the odds of higher global inflation and recession grow, it’s likely the Swiss National Bank will steer clear of any rate cuts in the first half of the year.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Friday on track for the second straight profit against the dollar, hitting seven-month highs and about to mark the second weekly profit in a row.

It comes amid surging haven demand due to mounting concerns about  the US-China trade war, which could tank the global economy and international trade.

The Price

The USD/JPY pair fell 1.1% today to 142.87 yen per dollar, the lowest since September 2024, with a session-high at 144.60.

The yen rose 2.2% on Thursday against the dollar, the largest such profit since January 2023 as the US-China trade war erupted.

Weekly Trades

The yen is up 2.75% so far against the dollar, on track for the second weekly profit in a row.

Trade War

US President Donald Trump escalated the devastating trade war with China by announcing 145% tariffs on Chinese products.

The tariffs will be immediate and are a response to China's disrespect to global markets as Trump described it.

Simultaneously, Trump announced a 90-day hold on tariffs for most other countries .

The Chinese government announced fresh retaliatory 84% tariffs on US products, deepening the trade war.

Investors are still concerned about the trade escalation between the US and China in particular, and from any potential recession due to the trade war, in turn impacting demand. 

Japanese Rates

As the risks facing the Japanese economy grew, especially from aggressive US tariffs, the odds of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this year fell to zero.

US Rates

Recent data showed US consumer prices slowed down more than expected in March, reducing inflationary pressures on the Federal Reserve.

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% rate cut in May rose from 15% to 35%, while the odds of a June rate cut rallied to 91%.

Interest Rate Gap

The current US-Japan interest rate gap is standing at 400 basis points in favor of the US, and will likely shrink to 375 basis points in the first half of the year, underpinning the yen against the greenback.

A return to reality after a historic day: The economic damages are casting long shadows.. This is what Wall Street has faced recently, with US stocks resuming their decline after marking their best daily performance in decades yesterday. 

Even as President Donald Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs, the chaos and existing tariffs still pose threats to the economy. 

US stock indices collapsed once more on Thursday, after Trump explained the actual tariff on Chinese products is now up to 145%, and not 125% as he stated before.

Dow Jones jumped 3000 points on Wednesday, before collapsing by over 1500 points today, at 4.5%, while S&P 500 lost 3.7%, as NASDAQ shed 5.2%.

Traders were jubilant yesterday after the US pause on tariffs on dozens of countries, with further positive sentiment in the morning as the EU also paused its retaliatory tariffs on US products.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that over 70 countries have contacted the US to negotiate new trade terms, in a sign that was considered highly positive by the administration.

The Harsh Reality Remains 

Economists believe the economic fallout has already occurred, with high recession risks for the US and the world, with the stocks still far from their levels before Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. 

The base US 10% tariff on most countries are still in place, as well as the 25% tariff on car imports, steel, and aluminum, with Trump vowing more tariffs on pharmaceuticals, wood, semiconductors, and copper.

The dollar index tumbled 1.8% against a basket of major rivals today, hitting early October lows, in a sign of huge investor concern about the health of the US economy.

Earlier US data today showed inflation slowed down markedly today, which could be a sign of slower demand.

China Won’t Back Down

Trump has remained committed to his aggressive trade war with China, raising the total tariffs to 145%.

China has said it’s still open to negotiation with the US, but asserted it won’t back down if Trump chose an escalation to the trade war.

Imminent Collapse or Buying Opportunity? 

We, like you, don’t know what’s waiting for the stock market in the future, but the first quarter of 2025 has given investors plenty of reasons to be concerned. 

It has become unusually difficult to predict the direction of the markets due to the chaotic nature of the US tariff war, but the overall sentiment remains decidedly negative. 

It’s always viable and recommended to hire a financial consultant to analyze the situation for you, but we’ll present some major data and views that could help you with future decisions.

There are obviously no optimal answers, with the future filled to the brim with the unknowns. 

We’re not sure how the market will react, or when, or how you will react, or how your needs will develop as you age.

In the past, major US stock indices always recovered from such losses, but such recovery could take a long time, and isn’t guaranteed at all.

If you can’t handle pain in the short and medium terms, you won’t achieve profits in the long term, and no consultant could help you with that.

Only you could decide the level of uncomfort you’re willing to live with, and the level of risk you’re willing to shoulder.

Here are three quick tips that could help:

• If you’re 40 years or younger and are collecting assets, consider a 100% stock wallet, with a market decline giving you opportunity to bargain hunt. 
• If you’re near retirement or already retired, consider making 40-60% of your funds stock-based, it could protect you from big hits.
• If you’re highly concerned or jittery, you could only put 30% of your funds in stocks, but it’ll require expanded savings on your part before retirement. 

What about Market Manipulation? 

There are accusations floating around of insider trading, market manipulation and corruption on a wide scale that could reach the White House.

Fingers are particularly pointing to the timing of Trump’s announcements on social media and subsequent spikes in stock prices.

Trump stated: “it’s a perfect time to buy” just hours before he walked back his tariffs and caused a massive rally in the stock market. 

Democratic senators are already calling for an investigation into potential insider trading accompanying these announcements.

Analysts’ Expectations 

Goldman Sachs analysts reduced their odds of a US recession this year to nearly 50% as Trump calmed down his trade war.

However, JPMorgan analysts still expect a 60% chance of a recession in the US and worldwide. 

Tesla’s stock price tumbled on Thursday after a new White House announcement on tariffs, triggering a new selloff wave on Wall Street. 

Optimism surged yesterday after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on most countries as they negotiate terms. 

However, US tariffs on China rose to a new high of 145% after Trump’s latest hike.

The Chinese government announced retaliatory 84% tariffs on all US products, to be implemented starting today, April 10.

Trump said that China doesn’t respect global markets, pointing to China’s retaliatory tariffs, thus he decided to raise his own tariffs to unprecedented levels. 

He said China wants a trade deal with the US, but doesn’t know how to go about it quite yet.

On trading, Tesla’s price tumbled 10.8% as of 16:19 GMT to $242.7.

Apple

Apple price shed 7.1% as of 16:20 GMT to $184.6 per share.